Could Northern Virginia See Bad Tornadoes?

In the wake of the devastation by monster tornadoes in on Sunday and now Oklahoma City, Okla. on Tuesday, Northern Virginians must wonder: Could it happen here?

A look at some of the history of tornados in Arlington County and Fairfax County, from information provided by the National Weather Service, shows that the strongest tornadoes to hit the the area in recent years were in 1973 and in 1979.

• F3 in 1973: On April Fool's Day, Sunday, April 1, 1973, just past 3 p.m., a magnitude F3 tornado touched down three times in central Fairfax County, damaging homes in Fairfax Station's Middleridge Subdivision and the Zion Drive area and tearing the roof from Pickett Shopping Center, according to news reports. Woodson High School also lost a roof in the tornado. Property damage was estimated up to $25 million.

Barbara McNaught Watson, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Sterling, noted that the tornado touched down in Prince William County and traveled 15 miles northeast through Fairfax and into Falls Church. Extensive damage occurred along a six-mile stretch in Fairfax, including damage to the high school, two shopping centers, an apartment complex and 226 homes. Only 37 people were injured. It could have been much worse, she noted, since it was Sunday and "Blue Laws" were still in effect: The normally busy shopping center which had extensive damage, was closed and school was not in session.

• F3 in 1979: On Sept. 5, 1979, Hurricane David spawned 34 tornadoes, eight of which were in Virginia and six of those were strong ones, including an F3 tornado that struck Fairfax County tracking 18 miles, killing one and injuring six people. It struck the same school (Woodson) hit by the tornado on April 1, 1973, this time causing $150,000 damage. Numerous cars were demolished, 90 homes damaged, and trees and debris blocked roads. Damages in Fairfax County reached $2.5 million dollars.

• F2 in 1996: On June 24, 1996, Watson said in a tornado report, a strong rotating thunderstorm developed over Virginia. After dropping hail in the Shenandoah Valley, it moved east. A state trooper spotted a small funnel drop down and pick up some trees along Route 50, west of Middleburg...An F2 tornado (winds 100 to 150 mph) moved from the southeast tip of Loudoun County into Fairfax County and struck the Sully Station community of Centreville. Seventeen homes had major damage and six of them were condemned. Dozens more had moderate damage. After about five miles, the tornado began to weaken.

        The tornado had weakened to a borderline F1 (70-90 mph winds) as it moved across the southern outskirts of Fairfax City. Homes here were in a heavily wooded area and so unless a tree fell right on the house, they were somewhat protected by the strongest winds. Soon the downburst wind from the rear-flank of the storm became stronger and bigger than the weakening tornado. It was a small weak F0 tornado by the time it passed George Mason University and reached the Capitol Beltway.

• F1 in 2001: On Monday, Sept. 24, 2001, about 3:45 p.m., a tornado downed trees and damaged buildings from Newington to Franconia before moving onto Shirlington and Alexandria. It was one of five tornados that touched down that afternoon, spawned by a cold front, according to the National Weather Service. The Newington tornado's winds were clocked at F1 and another tornado in Rixeyville, in Fauquier County was clocked at an F4 strength at Indian Fork Road, where witnesses said a house looked like it had exploded after the tornado touched down. Reports indicate this storm resulted in $1 million in property damage.

• F4 in 2002? At about 6:12 p.m. on Tuesday, April 28, 2002, emergency management officials noted a tornado spotted on radar in Northern Virginia and sent out a warning to the City of Manassas, southern Fairfax, eastern Fauquier and Prince William counties in Virginia. The tornado was part of a "supercell" that what would eventually become an F4 tornado that would strike La Plata, Md., causing four deaths. Some news reports mention more destruction from this storm in Virginia, but the National Weather Service does not list it.

The following two charts, from the National Weather Service, show tornadoes that have hit Fairfax County and Arlington County since 1950. The times listed are in military time. The abbrevations are: Mag (Magnitude); Dth (Deaths); Inj (Injuries); PrD (Property Damage); CrD (Crop Damage)

(The third chart is a further description of the wind speeds associated with the Fujita Scale.)